S&P 500 · SPX · North America
The daily data-driven S&P 500 analysis: where the S&P 500 stands, how Trend, Breadth and Investor Sentiment define the current Market Regime, and how comparable setups have unfolded since 1985.
Very High Reward Regime Endures, Risk-On Run Far Exceeds Norms
The S&P 500 declined by 0.2% on Friday, closing at 7711.8 after trading between 7700.9 and 7771.5. Market breadth was mixed, with 47.0% of constituents advancing and 52.8% declining, while 1.4% reached new 52-week highs and 0.2% marked new 52-week lows. Declining stocks accounted for 54.0% of trading volume, compared to 45.5% for advancing issues.
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A compact analysis of the S&P 500 indicators: Trend, Trend Quality (Breadth), and Sentiment across the short- and mid-term horizon, including Smart Money and Dumb Money positioning.
Short-term TREND indicators remain constructive, though there was a modest pullback in the aggregate score. The Trend Trader Index Lines continue to show both envelope lines rising, underscoring the resilience of the prevailing short-term price trend. The Advance-/Decline 20 Days Momentum confirms that advancing issues are outpacing decliners, while the WSC Short-Term Trend Index highlights broad-based participation with a significant proportion of stocks trading above their 26-week highs. The market remains above its 50-day moving average, and the EMA 50 Line is still rising, both of which reinforce the positive short-term structure. However, the Modified MACD has turned negative, signaling a loss of momentum, and the Trend Trader Index shifted to neutral versus the previous observation, suggesting some moderation in trend strength.
TREND QUALITY in the short-term remains unchanged at a neutral level, with no material improvement or deterioration versus the previous observation. While several breadth and participation indicators such as the Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day MA and Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily continue to support a healthy underlying structure, there are emerging pockets of weakness. The Percentage of Stocks Above 20-Day MA remains below the majority threshold, and both the Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily and Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily indicate that declining momentum and volume are outpacing advancing counterparts. Other measures, including the CBOE Total Put-/Call Ratio Daily, 9-to-1 Up-/Down Days, and RSI extremes, remain neutral and do not materially influence the overall assessment.
SENTIMENT remains firmly positive in the short-term, with the Sentiment Score holding at its maximum reading. Realized Volatility in % (10d) continues to trade below its 25th percentile, which is typically interpreted as a constructive signal for risk assets. The New Highs vs. New Lows Daily indicator confirms that more stocks are achieving new yearly highs than lows, further supporting a positive risk backdrop. While some short-term participation metrics have softened, there is no evidence of excessive optimism or overbought conditions, as the Percentage of Stocks with RSI(14) above 70 remains neutral. The overall sentiment environment continues to favor a risk-on stance.
Mid-term TREND indicators remain firmly supportive, with no change in the aggregate score versus the previous observation. The WSC Trend Index continues to show a broad-based advance, as a significant proportion of stocks trade above their 52-week highs. The WSC Mid-Term Price Trend remains bullish, and the market continues to close above its 100-day moving average, with the EMA 100 Line still rising. These signals collectively reinforce the durability of the mid-term uptrend and suggest that the underlying price structure remains intact.
TREND QUALITY in the mid-term holds at its maximum reading, reflecting a persistently strong and healthy market structure. The Percentage of Stocks Above 100-Day MA and 150-Day MA both confirm that the majority of constituents are participating in the uptrend, while the Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly and Advance-/Decline Index Weekly both indicate that advancing stocks and volume are outpacing decliners. Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly further corroborates the presence of healthy demand. There has been no deterioration in these measures versus the previous observation, and the overall breadth and participation profile remains robust.
SENTIMENT in the mid-term remains negative, unchanged from the previous observation, as several key indicators continue to signal caution. The Smart Money Flow Index is not confirming the current market level, and the WSC Capitulation Index FT reflects a negative outlook from smart money flows. The AAII Bulls & Bears Survey shows an elevated level of bearish sentiment among individual investors, indicating increased fear. However, the WSC Capitulation Index itself remains positive, and realized volatility in % (20d) is still below its 25th percentile, which is typically a constructive sign. Other sentiment measures, such as the Z-Score Put-/Call Ratio and Hindenburg Omen, remain neutral and do not materially influence the overall assessment.
The S&P 500 remains positioned within a Structural Bull Market, as defined by persistently elevated Long-Term Market Health. The current regime is classified as Very High Reward, the most constructive of the six regime tiers, and reflects a Risk-On phase supported by strong Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health readings.
Historically, since 1985, this regime has delivered an annualized return of 27.1% with a Sharpe ratio of 2.35, roughly twice the buy-and-hold baseline of 12.4%, at meaningfully lower volatility. The average maximum drawdown stands at -1.38%, and the up-day rate is 56.3%, based on a sample of 391 episodes.
Historical return of the S&P 500 je Marktphase: die Entwicklung der sechs Market Regimes seit 1985 im Vergleich zur Buy-and-Hold-Benchmark. Die aktuelle Marktphase ist als Aktiv gekennzeichnet.
Very High Reward| Market Regime | Zeitanteil | Episoden | Rendite p.a. | Positive Tage | Ø positiver Tag | Ø negativer Tag | Volatilität | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On · 70.6% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Very High Reward | 62.7% | 391 | 27.1% | 56.3% | 0.6% | -0.5% | 11.5% | 2.35 |
| High Reward | 4.0% | 135 | 35.7% | 55.0% | 0.8% | -0.7% | 16.5% | 2.17 |
| Increasing Reward | 4.0% | 98 | 38.6% | 55.7% | 1.1% | -1.1% | 22.9% | 1.69 |
| Risk-Off · 29.4% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Increasing Risk | 14.9% | 388 | -16.7% | 49.6% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 15.9% | -1.05 |
| High Risk | 4.5% | 193 | -15.9% | 48.1% | 0.8% | -0.8% | 17.0% | -0.93 |
| Very High Risk | 10.0% | 157 | -32.1% | 48.4% | 1.5% | -1.6% | 37.9% | -0.85 |
| Benchmark · Buy & Hold | ||||||||
| All Periods | 100.0% | n/a | 12.4% | 54.4% | 0.7% | -0.7% | 17.3% | 0.72 |
Returns annualized; up-day share, average daily returns, volatility and Sharpe Ratio based on historical daily data since 1985. Past performance is no guide to future results.
Short-term outcomes in this regime have historically been mixed, with positive and negative returns occurring at similar rates over the next day to one month. While Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health remain strong, the near-term pattern has not consistently favored upside, and soft patches have been common even within this constructive regime.
The current combination of Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health places the regime in a stable state, with an 84.3% probability of remaining Risk-On over the next five trading days (Very High Reward 84.3%).
The historical pattern has favored maintaining exposure rather than aggressively increasing risk in similar circumstances. The bias has leaned toward ongoing participation, with a focus on allowing existing positions to compound rather than rotating or reducing exposure.
WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research on the S&P 500 every trading day. With a free Basic account you get full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard.
See This Week's Free Market →The current classification is shown at the top of this page and is updated after the close on every trading day. It is based on the S&P 500 Market Regime, the market phase derived from trend, market breadth and investor sentiment. Instead of price targets, the analysis shows how the S&P 500 has performed in comparable conditions since 1985. The freely available report is published with a delay; members receive it on the day of publication.
The answer is provided by the six-level scale at the top of this page. The upper three levels (Risk-On) indicate a constructive, broadly bullish environment, the lower three (Risk-Off) a defensive, broadly bearish environment. In addition, the long-term Market Health Score, a measure of market health from 0 to 100, shows whether the S&P 500 is trading in a bull or bear market on a structural level: readings of 50 and above indicate a bull market, readings below 50 a bear market.
Chapter 01 covers the latest session and which indicators changed. Structurally, a single down day rarely changes the underlying picture: the Market Regime is derived from trend, breadth and sentiment across more than 40 indicators, not from one session. The page shows whether the latest move has shifted the regime or left it intact.
Nobody can predict that with certainty. Instead, Chapter 04 shows the probability that the current market phase of the S&P 500 has persisted or shifted in comparable historical conditions since 1985. This provides a statistical expectation for the coming trading days, not price targets.
The long-term outlook is derived from the structural market status and historical statistics: Chapter 04 shows how often the S&P 500 was trading higher twelve months after comparable market phases and what the average development looked like. This is a probability-based assessment built on data since 1985, not a prediction.
Indications are provided by the sentiment indicators in Chapter 02, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money, meaning institutional and retail investors. Extreme euphoria has historically served as a warning signal, while extreme fear often acts as a contrarian indicator. The current state of investor sentiment is published on every trading day.
No. Classic forecasts provide price targets and chart levels. Instead, this page determines the current market phase of the S&P 500 on every trading day based on trend, market breadth and investor sentiment, and shows how comparable phases have developed since 1985. Probabilities instead of price targets: that is the data-driven form of an outlook.
In part. The indicators behind the Market Regime are technical: trend direction, moving averages, momentum and market breadth, combined with investor sentiment and smart money positioning. The difference lies in the interpretation. Instead of reading chart patterns, the signals are aggregated into a single score and compared with the historical record.
A Market Regime describes where a market stands as of the latest close on a six-level scale, from Very High Reward to Very High Risk. The upper three levels are considered Risk-On, the lower three Risk-Off. The classification describes the risk-reward environment the S&P 500 is trading in, not a price target.
Market Health is a measure of the market's condition: a composite score from 0 to 100, calculated separately for the short-, medium- and long-term horizon. It combines three dimensions: Trend shows whether the market is moving up, down or sideways. Market breadth (Trend Quality) measures how many stocks are actually participating in the move. Sentiment captures investor mood, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money. Readings above 50 indicate a constructive environment.
Risk-On comprises the three constructive Market Regimes Very High Reward, High Reward and Increasing Reward. Risk-Off comprises Increasing Risk, High Risk and Very High Risk. This distinction matters because the six Market Regimes have developed very differently since 1985. The table above shows, for each Market Regime since 1985, the annualized return, the share of positive days, the volatility and the Sharpe Ratio compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark.
After the close on every trading day. WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research only. Intraday or live data is not offered.
A free Basic account provides full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard. The freely available market changes every Saturday. No credit card is required.
No. WallStreetCourier publishes quantitative market research for informational purposes. It describes current market conditions but does not provide recommendations to act. The historical performance of a Market Regime is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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