No major dealbreaker visible – at least for now

March 24th 2024 |

Key Takeaways

  • Strategic positive outlook remains unchanged
  • Strong trend quality is supporting positive outlook
  • Currently no deal-breaker visible

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with solid gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 39,475.90 and climbed 2% this week. The S&P 500 gained 2.3% over the same period and finished at 5,234.18. Closing at 16,428.82, the Nasdaq rallied 2.9% for the week. Most key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the comm. services sector. Real estate was the only decliner. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 13.1. Read More

Increase in volatility likely but no reason to change our positive outlook!

March 17th 2024 |

Key Takeaways

  • Strategic positive outlook remains unchanged
  • Strong trend quality is supporting positive outlook
  • Short-term, the trend momentum is slowing down a bit

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week mostly with small losses. Closing at 38,714.77, the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched lower by less than 0.1% on the week. The S&P 500 booked a small weekly loss of 0.1% to finish at 5,117.09. The Nasdaq shed 0.7% for the week to end at 15,973.17. Among the key S&P sectors, energy and materials led advancers, while real estate led decliners. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 14.4. Read More

Healthy pause likely, whereas strategic positive outlook remains unchanged!

March 10th 2024 |

Key Takeaways

  • Strategic positive outlook remains unchanged
  • Strong trend quality is supporting positive outlook
  • Short-term the market is vulnerable for a healthy pause

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished a choppy week with a negative performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.9% over the week, to end at 38,722.69. The S&P 500 declined 0.3% from last week’s close to finish at 5,123.69. The Nasdaq closed at 16,085.11, posting 1.2% weekly loss. Among the key S&P sectors, the utilities sector was the best weekly performer, while discretionary dragged the most. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options known as the VIX, ended at 14.7. Read More

Solid trend quality all across the board

March 3rd 2024 |

Key Takeaways

  • Markets reached new record highs
  • Strategic positive outlook remains unchanged
  • Strong trend quality is supporting positive outlook

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended the week mostly higher, pushing two major indexes to new record highs again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 39,087.38 and finished the week nearly unchanged. The S&P 500 booked a 1% gain over the week to close at 5,137.08. The broad-index recorded a new record high during the day and its first close above the 5,100 threshold. The Nasdaq advanced 1.7% from last Friday's close, finishing at 16,302.2. It also reached a new all-time high during the week. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notched their seventh positive week over the last eight. Among the key S&P sectors, the technology was the best weekly performer, while the health care sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 13.1. Read More

New all-time highs in major indices supported by a wide range of stocks!

February 25th 2024 |

Key Takeaways

  • Market is moving in line with our outlook
  • Strong trend quality is supporting strategic positive outlook
  • New allocation in our ETF Model Portfolios

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with gains and with two major indexes posting new record highs. Closing at a record of 39,131.53, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3% for the week. The S&P 500 booked a weekly gain of 1.7% and closed at 5,088.80. Earlier Friday, the broad market index broke above 5,100 for the first time. The Nasdaq recorded a weekly gain of 1.4% and finished at 15,996.82, notching a fresh 52-week high earlier in the session. All key S&P sectors finished higher, led by the staples sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 13.8. Read More

Short-lived breather in place but no need to get nervous!

February 18h 2024 |

Key Takeaways

  • Strategic positive outlook remains unchanged
  • Strong trend quality is supporting positive outlook
  • Latest weakness just part of a short-lived breather

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with a negative performance and the three major averages broke their five-week winning streaks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1% over the week, to end at 38,627.99. The S&P 500 declined 0.4% from last week’s close to finish at 5,005.57. The Nasdaq closed at 15,775.65, posting a 1.3% weekly loss. Among the key S&P sectors, the energy sector was the best weekly performer, while technology dragged the most. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options known as the VIX, ended at 14.2. Read More

New all-time high and fifth consecutive winning week for the S&P 500!

February 11th 2024 |

Key Takeaways

  • Strategic positive outlook remains unchanged
  • Strong trend quality is supporting positive outlook
  • No changes in our Model Portfolios

Market Review |

The U.S. stock market finished another week with gains. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a small gain of less than 0.1% to close at 38,671.69. The S&P 500 added 1.4% over the week to 5,026.61. The Nasdaq gained 2.3% over the past five days to 15,990.66. All three major averages posted new records on Friday, notched their fifth straight winning week and 14th positive week in 15. Among the key S&P sectors, the technology sector was the best weekly performer, while utilities dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, ended at 13.3. Read More

No major dealbreaker visible

February 4th 2024  |

Key Takeaways

  • Strategic positive outlook remains unchanged
  • Strong trend quality is supporting positive outlook
  • No changes in our Model Portfolios

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with gains and with two major indexes posting new record highs. Closing at a record of 38,654.42, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4% for the week. The S&P 500 also booked a weekly gain of 1.4% and closed at a record of 4,958.61. The Nasdaq finished at 15,628.95 and rose 1.1% this week. It was the fourth week in a row of gains for the major benchmarks after a stumble to start 2024. Most key S&P sectors finished higher, led by the discretionary sector. Energy and real estate were the only decliner. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 13.9. Read More

Stronger recovery in trend quality is supporting our positive outlook!

January 28th 2024 |

Key Takeaways

  • Strategic positive outlook remains unchanged
  • Recovery in trend quality is supporting positive outlook
  • New allocations in our Model Portfolios

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished another week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.7% this week to end at 38,109.43, an all-time closing high. The S&P 500 recorded a weekly gain of 1.1% to close at 4,890.97. The Nasdaq advanced 0.9% for the week to close at 15,455.36. Among the key S&P sectors, energy was the best weekly performer, while discretionary dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 13.3. Read More

S&P 500 reached a new all-time high, but keep an eye on trend quality!

January 21st 2024

Key Takeaways

  • Markets reached all-time highs last week
  • Strategic positive outlook remains unchanged
  • Slowdown in trend quality as short-term warning signal

Market Review |

The U.S. stock market finished the week with gains. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a small gain of 0.1% to close at 37,863.80. The S&P 500 advanced 1% over the week to 4,839.81, reaching an all-time high. The Nasdaq rose 2.1% over the past five days to 15,310.97. All three major averages are now in positive territory for 2024. Among the key S&P sectors, the technology sector was the best weekly performer, while utilities dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, ended at 13.3. Read More

No fundamental reason to change our positive outlook!

January 14th 2024 |

Key Takeaways

  • Strategic positive outlook remains unchanged
  • Minor change in the WSC Sector Rotation Strategy
  • Seasonal headwinds possible

Market Review |

All three major averages finished up for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3% for the week to close at 37,592.98. The S&P 500 soared 1.8% week to date to finish at 4,783.83. The Nasdaq jumped 3.1% over the week to end at 14,972.76. Among the key S&P sectors, the technology sector was the best weekly performer, while energies dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, ended at 12.7. Read More

Healthy consolidation in place – at least for now!

January 7th 2024 |

Key Takeaways

  • Strategic positive outlook remains unchanged
  • Potential risk of a consolidation period is increasing
  • Seasonal headwinds possible

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with a negative performance and the three major averages notched their first negative week in 10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.6% over the week, to end at 37,466.11. The S&P 500 declined 1.5% from last week’s close to finish at 4,697.24. The Nasdaq closed at 14,524.07, posting a 3.3% weekly loss and its worst weekly performance since September. Among the key S&P sectors, the health care sector was the best weekly performer, while technology dragged the most. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options known as the VIX, ended at 13.4. Read More

No reason to change our positive outlook

December 31st 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Further confirmation for our positive outlook
  • No major deal-breaker visible for now
  • Sentiment looks a bit stretched but not a major problem at the moment

Market Review |

Once again, U.S. stocks ended the week with gains. Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.8% this week to end at 37,689.54. The S&P 500 added 0.3% for the week to close at 4,769.83. The Nasdaq eked out a small weekly gain of 0.1% to close at 15,011.35. The Dow finished the year with a 13.7% gain, the broad index with a 24.2% performance and the Nasdaq rose 43.4% year to date. Among the key S&P sectors, staples was the best weekly performer, while energy dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 12.5. Read More

Washout day leaves market better positioned for further gains!

December 24th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Expected year-end rally still in place
  • No major deal-breaker visible for now
  • Short-term washout-event leaves market better positioned – at least for now

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended another week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average booked a small weekly gain of 0.2% to end at 37,385.97. The S&P 500 added 0.8% in that time to close at 4,754.63. The Nasdaq recorded a weekly gain of 1.2% to finish at 14,992.97. The three major averages notched their eighth positive week in a row — a first for the S&P 500 since 2017 and for the Dow dating back to 2019. Most key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by comm. services. Utilities were the only decliners. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 13. Read More

Outlook remains positive!

December 17th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Expected year-end rally still in place
  • No major deal-breaker visible for now
  • Sentiment looks increasingly stretched but has not reached critical levels yet

Market Review |

U.S. stocks posted strong gains for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.9% week to date to close at 37,305.16. The S&P 500 advanced 2.9% as well and finished at 4,719.19, posting its longest weekly winning streak since 2017. The Nasdaq also gained 2.9% for the week and closed at 14,813.92. As of Friday, the Dow is higher on the month by 3.8%. The S&P 500 is up by 3.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite has climbed 4.1% so far in December. All key S&P sectors succeeded to close in positive territory for the week, led by the real estate sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 12.3. Read More

Seasonal Volatility Likely But Still No Major Dealbreaker Visible

December 10th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Expected year-end rally still in place
  • No major deal-breaker visible for now although sentiment is increasingly becoming a burden
  • Short-term seasonal driven volatility likely

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished another week with small gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced less than 0.1% this week to end at 36,247.87. The S&P 500 eked out a small weekly gain of 0.2% to close at 4,604.37. The Nasdaq advanced 0.7% for the week to close at 14,403.97. Among the key S&P sectors, energy was the best weekly performer, while discretionary dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 12.4. Read More

No Dealbreaker Visible Although Sentiment Increasingly Becoming A Burden

December 3rd 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Expected year-end rally still in place
  • No major deal-breaker visible for now although sentiment is increasingly becoming a burden
  • Market pace is likely to slow down as market is heavily overbought

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended another week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 2.4% this week to end at 36,245.50. The S&P 500 booked a 0.8% gain over the week and closed at 4,594.63. The Nasdaq advanced 0.4% for the week to close at 14,305.03. For November, the S&P and Nasdaq rallied 8.9% and 10.7%, respectively, to notch their best monthly performances since July 2022. The Dow surged 8.8% for its best month since October 2022. Most key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the real estate sector. Comm. services were the only decliners. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 12.6. Read More

Further broad-based uptrend confirmation

November 26th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Tactically, further confirmation for our year-end rally scenario
  • Strategically, the risk-/reward ratio also looks now increasingly attractive
  • New allocations in our Model Portfolios

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with solid gains. Closing at 35,390.15, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 1.3% for the week. The S&P 500 ended at 4,559.34 and gained 1% this week. The Nasdaq added 0.9% for the week and closed at 14,250.85. All key S&P sectors succeeded to close in positive territory for the week, led by the health care sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 12.5. Read More

Seasonal tailwinds in place!

November 19th 2023  |

Key Takeaways

  • Tactically, further confirmation for our year-end bounce scenario
  • Very short-term perspective some profit taking into next week is quite likely Strategically, the current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. stocks rallied for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.9% from last Friday’s close to end at 34,947.28. The S&P 500 finished at 4,514.02 and surged 2.2% on the week. The Nasdaq jumped 2.4% during the week to 14,125.48. The major averages each notched their third straight positive week. All key S&P sectors succeeded to close in positive territory for the week, led by the real estate sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 13.8. Read More

Expect seasonal support into the year end!

November 12th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Tactically, further confirmation for our year-end bounce scenario
  • Very short-term perspective some profit taking into next week is quite likely
  • Strategically, the current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with gains. Closing at 34,283.10, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 0.7% for the week. The S&P 500 finished at 4,415.24 and gained 1.3% this week. The Nasdaq increased 2.4% for the week and closed at 13,798.11. Among the key S&P sectors, the technology sector was the best weekly performer, while energy dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, finished at 14.2. Read More

Further selling pressure ahead as ingredients for a bounce still missing!

October 29th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Expect further (stronger) selling pressure down the road

  • Trend quality is neglecting any sustainable recovery scenario

  • The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

In line with our strategic outlook, U.S. stocks finished another week with brutal losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 2.1% over the week to 32,417.59. The S&P 500 closed at 4,117.37 and posted a 2.5% weekly loss. The Nasdaq plunged 2.6% this week to end at 12,643.01. Besides the utilities sector, all key S&P sectors were negative for the week, led by energy. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 21.3.

Read More

Renewed selling pressure in place! More pain ahead!

October 22nd 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Bounce was successfully running out of fuel last week
  • Trend quality is neglecting any sustainable recovery scenario
  • The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review

All major indices finished the week deeply in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1.6% over the week to 33,127.28. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 2.4% to finish at 4,224.16. The Nasdaq slumped 3.2% for the week to end at 12,983.81. Except energy and staples, all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the real estate sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, finished the week increased to 21.7. Read More

Oversold bounce running out of fuel soon!

October 15th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Expected bounce in place but signs of fatigue visible
  • Trend quality is neglecting any sustainable recovery scenario
  • The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week mostly higher. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a small gain of 0.8% to close at 33,670.29. The S&P 500 gained 0.5% during the week to end at 4,327.78. The Nasdaq declined 0.2% for the week to finish at 13,407.23. Among the key S&P sectors, the energy sector was the best weekly performer, while discretionary dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 19.3. Read More

Stabilization/bounce in place but expect further selling pressure afterwards

October 8th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Stronger signs of capitulation are likely to trigger stronger oversold bounce
  • Nevertheless, the quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
  • The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

Mainly due to a stronger bounce on Friday, U.S. averages finished the week with a mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% during the week to close at 33,407.58. The S&P 500 eked out a small weekly gain of 0.5% to finish at 4,308.50. The Nasdaq climbed 1.6% for the week and finished at 13,431.34. Among the key S&P sectors, the technology sector was the best weekly performer, while energy dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 17.5.

Read More

Oversold bounce likely but no reason to change our negative outlook!

October 1st 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Ingredients for a stronger bounce are accumulating
  • Nevertheless, the quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
  • The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. averages finished the week mostly with a negative performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.3% over the week, to end at 33,507.50. The S&P 500 declined 0.7% from last week's close to finish at 4,288.05. The Nasdaq closed at 13,219.32, posting a tiny 0.1% weekly gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a 3.5% decline this month, the S&P 500 4.9% and the Nasdaq was off 5.8% in September. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 posted their worst months this year. Most key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by utilities. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options known as the VIX, ended at 17.5. Read More

Expect more pain ahead as there are no signs for an important low yet!

September 24th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Market sentiment has not shown any signs of capitulation yet.
  • Ingredients for an important low are still missing.
  • Thus, expect further selling pressure ahead.

Market Review |

In line with our strategic outlook, U.S. stocks finished a tough week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.9% over the week to 33,963.84. The S&P 500 retreated 2.9% for the week to finish at 4,320.06. The Nasdaq posted a 3.6% loss for the week and finished at 13,211.81. The S&P and the Nasdaq recorded their third straight negative week and worst weekly performance since March. All key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, advanced to 17.2.

Read More

Uptrend Is Still Built On Extremely Weak Ground!

April 30th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
  • The air is getting thinner as negative divergences are piling up
  • Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week higher. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain of 0.9% to close at 34,098.16. The S&P 500 also gained 0.9% during the week to end at 4,169.48. The Nasdaq rose 1.3% for the week to end at 12,226.58. Among the key S&P sectors, the comm. services sector was the best weekly performer, while utilities dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 15.8.

Read More

Negative Divergences Are Piling Up!

April 23rd 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
  • The air is getting thinner as negative divergences are piling up
  • Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

All major indices finished the week in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.2% over the week to 33,808.96. The S&P 500 booked a small weekly loss of 0.1% to finish at 4,133.52. The Nasdaq declined 0.4% for the week to end at 12,072.46. Among the key S&P sectors, the staples sector was the best weekly performer, while comm. services dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 16.8.

Read More

Trend Still Driven By Large Caps Whereas Broad Market Remains Vulnerable

April 16th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
  • Trend quality still signals that the S&P 500 will not have enough power to break substantially above its current trading range.
  • Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

Major U.S. averages finished the week higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.2% during the week to close at 33,886.47. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% for the week to close at 4,137.64. The Nasdaq managed to eke out a small weekly gain of 0.3% to end at 12,123.47. Among the key S&P sectors, financials were the best weekly performer, while the real estate sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 17.1.

Read More

Recovery Is Still Built On An Outright Narrow Leadership

April 9th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
  • Risk for stronger waterfall declines remains high
  • Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week mainly with a negative performance. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average squeaked out a small gain of 0.6% to close at 33,485.29, the S&P 500 declined 0.1% during the week to end at 4,105.02. Also, the Nasdaq lost 1.1% for the week to end at 12,087.96. Among the key S&P sectors, the health care sector was the best weekly performer, while industrials dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 18.4.

Read More