Month: January 2023

January 28th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Sentiment driven breather looks increasingly likely
• However, trend and trend quality improved on all time-frames
• Thus, there is no reason to challenge our positive strategic outlook for the time being

Market Review |

In line with our latest call, U.S. stocks rallied strongly for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.8% in the past five days to finish at 33,978.08. The S&P 500 added 2.5% over the week to finish at 4,070.56. The Nasdaq jumped 4.3% during the week to 11,621.71 and closed out its fourth week of gains. All three major averages are on pace for a month of gains. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. Health care and utilities were the only decliners. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 18.5. Read More

January 21st 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Market was relieving overbought conditions last week
• Decline caused a spike in our fear indicators, leaving the market better positioned
• No reason to change our strategic bullish outlook for the time being

Market Review |

U.S. averages finished the week with a mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.7% over the week, to end at 33,375.49. The S&P 500 declined 0.7% from last week's close to finish at 3,972.61. The Nasdaq closed at 11,140.43, posting a 0.6% weekly gain and its third positive week in a row. All of the major averages are still in positive territory for the year. Among the key S&P sectors, the comm. services sector was the best weekly performer, while industrials dragged the most. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options known as the VIX, ended at 19.9. Read More

January 15th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Further confirmation for our positive strategic view
• We expect that the quite fresh rally is not at risk of fading out soon
• Any potential overbought or sentiment driven washout-even should be limited in price and time

Market Review |

In line with our latest strategic call, U.S. stocks rallied for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.0% from last Friday’s close to 34,302.61. The S&P 500 finished at 3,999.09 and surged 2.7% on the week. The Nasdaq jumped 4.8% during the week to 11,079.16. The S&P and Nasdaq each posted their second consecutive positive week and best weekly performance since November. Among the key S&P sectors, real estate was the best weekly performer, while staples dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 18.4. Read More

January 8th 2023|

Key Takeaways

• We upgrade our strategic outlook from cautious to bullish
• New uptrend is about to establish but expect high volatility
• Short-term-oriented indicators critical to watch within the next couple of days

Market Review |

U.S. stocks closed the first week of the year with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.5% over the week to end at 33,630.61. The S&P 500 recorded also a weekly 1.5% gain to close at  3,895.08. The Nasdaq advanced 1% from last Friday's close to finish at 10,569.29. Most key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by comm. services. Health care was the only decliner. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 21.1. Read More

January 1st 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Sentiment is increasingly hitting extreme levels
• Currently, the quality of the downtrend still looks too strong to catch a falling knife
• Thus, the current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the final week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 33,147.25 and ended the week 0.2% down. The S&P 500 edged 0.1% lower for the week to finish at 3,839.50. The Nasdaq closed out the week down 0.3% to end at 10,466.88. Friday marked the final day of trading in what has been a painful year for stocks. All three of the major averages suffered their worst year since 2008 and snapped a three-year win streak. The Dow Jones Industrial fared the best of the indexes in 2022, down about 8.8%. The S&P 500 sank 19.4%, and is more than 20% below its record high, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 33.1% (click here for more relevant market relevant statistics). Among the key S&P sectors, financials were the best weekly performer, while the materials sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 21.7. Read More