Trend quality still too low to bet on a sustainable recovery

June 26th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • No significant recovery in our short-term-oriented indicators visible
  • Latest gains can still be classified as oversold bounce
  • Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio is too low to act contrarian

Market Review |

The market was in bounce mode last week. All three major U.S. averages posted strong weekly gains and snapped three-week losing streaks. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average succeeded to gain 5.4% to close at 31,500.68. The S&P 500 finished at 3,911.74 and is up nearly 6.5% for the week. The Nasdaq jumped 7.5% from last Friday’s close to end at 11,607.62. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. Energy was the only weekly loser. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 27.2. Read More

Positive divergences have been wiped out during the week!

June 19th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Most positive divergence have been wiped out.
  • Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio is too low to act contrarian.
  • Market is quite oversold and, therefore, the chances for an oversold bounce are accumulating.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished another week with sharp losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 29,888.78 and dropped 4.8% for the week. The blue-chip index suffered its 11th negative week in 12. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,674.84 and lost 5.8% week to date. The Nasdaq fell 4.8% from last Friday's close to end at 10,798.35. All key S&P sectors ended once again in deep negative territory for the week, led by energy. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 31.1. Read More

Re-test came along with a lot of positive divergences!

June 12th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Re-test of the previous low came along with positive divergences.
  • Small chance that latest sell-off was just part of a major bottom building process.
  • Nevertheless it is time to place a stop-loss limit at 3,800 since the risk-reward ratio deteriorated again.

Market Review |

It was a though week as U.S. stocks finished the week with deep losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 4.6% over the week to 31,392.79. The S&P 500 retreated 5.1% for the week to finish at 3,900.86. The Nasdaq posted a 5.6% loss for the week and finished at 11,340.02. All key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the financial sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, advanced to 27.8. Read More

No need to get nervous – at least for now!

June 5th 2022  |

Key Takeaways

  • We stick to our strategic bullish outlook.
  • Quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend looks quite high.
  • Latest declines were mainly driven by heavy weighted tech stocks rather than being the result of broad-based selling pressure.
  • Sentiment could be a strong catalyst in the current market environment.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost less than 1% over the week to 32,899.70. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 1.2% to finish at 4,108.54. The Nasdaq dropped 1% percent for the week to end at 12,012.73. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the health care sector. Energy was the best weekly performer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 24.8. Read More