S&P 500 · SPX · North America
The daily data-driven S&P 500 analysis: where the S&P 500 stands, how Trend, Breadth and Investor Sentiment define the current Market Regime, and how comparable setups have unfolded since 1985.
Very High Reward Regime Endures, Stability Remains Elevated
The S&P 500 advanced 0.7% on Thursday, closing at 7731.0, with the session’s range spanning from 7689.9 to 7741.3. Despite the index’s positive return, only 29.9% of constituents posted gains while 69.7% declined, and advancing stocks accounted for 45.0% of trading volume. New 52-week highs were limited to 2.9% of the index, with 1.8% reaching new lows, indicating that the upward move was driven by a relatively narrow segment of the market.
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A compact analysis of the S&P 500 indicators: Trend, Trend Quality (Breadth), and Sentiment across the short- and mid-term horizon, including Smart Money and Dumb Money positioning.
Short-term TREND indicators delivered a mixed but generally constructive picture versus the previous observation. The Trend Trader Index signaled a bullish shift, with the market now trading above the upper envelope line based on the 20-day rolling high, and both envelope lines of the Trend Trader Index Lines are rising, confirming the structural integrity of the short-term price trend. The Advance-/Decline 20 Days Momentum remains positive, reflecting broad-based participation among advancing issues. The WSC Short-Term Trend Index continues to show a healthy percentage of stocks trading above their 26-week highs, and the market remains above its 50-day moving average, with the EMA 50 Line still rising. However, the Modified MACD has turned negative, indicating a loss of short-term momentum. Overall, the short-term TREND has strengthened, but with some emerging caution.
TREND QUALITY in the short-term horizon weakened notably, retreating from its previous elevated level. While the majority of stocks remain above their 50-day moving average, supporting a positive underlying structure, participation has deteriorated at the 20-day time frame, as the Percentage of Stocks Above 20-Day MA turned bearish versus the prior session. The Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily and Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily both shifted to bearish, with declining stocks and volume now outpacing advancing ones. These developments suggest that, despite the persistence of the broader trend, the quality of participation and momentum has eroded, warranting a more cautious interpretation.
SENTIMENT indicators for the short-term horizon moderated sharply, with the Sentiment Score halving from the previous observation. Realized Volatility in % (10d) remains supportive, as volatility continues to trade below its 25th percentile, which is typically a constructive backdrop. However, the CBOE Total Put-/Call Ratio Daily turned bearish, signaling increased greed among market participants, a contrarian negative. Other sentiment gauges, such as the 9-to-1 Up-/Down Days and the Percentage of Stocks with RSI(14) above 70 or below 30, remained neutral and did not materially influence the overall assessment. The net effect is a more balanced, neutral sentiment profile compared to the prior, more optimistic reading.
Mid-term TREND indicators remain robust, holding at their maximum readings and unchanged from the previous observation. The WSC Trend Index continues to reflect a broad-based advance, with a high percentage of stocks trading above their 52-week highs. The WSC Mid-Term Price Trend remains bullish, and the market closed above its 100-day moving average, with the EMA 100 Line still rising. These signals collectively confirm the persistence of a strong mid-term uptrend, with no material deterioration in the underlying trend structure.
TREND QUALITY in the mid-term horizon remains at its peak, with no change from the prior session. The Percentage of Stocks Above 100-Day MA and 150-Day MA both indicate that the majority of constituents are participating in the advance, reinforcing the durability of the trend. The Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly and Advance-/Decline Index Weekly both show advancing stocks outpacing decliners, while the Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly confirms healthy demand through superior advancing volume. These factors collectively underscore a high-quality, broad-based mid-term trend.
SENTIMENT in the mid-term horizon remains negative, unchanged from the previous observation. While Realized Volatility in % (20d) continues to trade below its 25th percentile, providing a supportive backdrop, both the Smart Money Flow Index and WSC Capitulation Index FT indicate that smart money is not confirming the current market levels and is adopting a more defensive posture. The AAII Bulls & Bears Survey continues to reflect elevated fear among individual investors. Other sentiment measures, such as the Z-Score Put-/Call Ratio and Hindenburg Omen, remain neutral and do not materially affect the overall assessment. The persistent divergence between strong trend signals and cautious sentiment warrants attention.
The S&P 500 remains positioned within a Structural Bull Market, as defined by persistently elevated Long-Term Market Health. The current regime is classified as Very High Reward, the most constructive of the six regime tiers the framework distinguishes, and is underpinned by strong readings in both Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health. This environment reflects a sustained Risk-On phase with supportive conditions across tactical horizons.
Historically, since 1985 and across 391 samples, this regime has delivered an annualized return of +27.1% with a Sharpe of 2.35, roughly twice the buy-and-hold baseline of +12.4%, at meaningfully lower volatility. Average maximum drawdown stands at -1.38%, and the up-day rate is 56.3%.
Historical return of the S&P 500 je Marktphase: die Entwicklung der sechs Market Regimes seit 1985 im Vergleich zur Buy-and-Hold-Benchmark. Die aktuelle Marktphase ist als Aktiv gekennzeichnet.
Very High Reward| Market Regime | Zeitanteil | Episoden | Rendite p.a. | Positive Tage | Ø positiver Tag | Ø negativer Tag | Volatilität | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On · 70.6% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Very High Reward | 62.7% | 391 | 27.1% | 56.3% | 0.6% | -0.5% | 11.5% | 2.35 |
| High Reward | 4.0% | 135 | 35.7% | 55.0% | 0.8% | -0.7% | 16.5% | 2.17 |
| Increasing Reward | 4.0% | 98 | 38.6% | 55.7% | 1.1% | -1.1% | 22.9% | 1.69 |
| Risk-Off · 29.4% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Increasing Risk | 14.9% | 388 | -16.7% | 49.6% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 15.9% | -1.05 |
| High Risk | 4.5% | 193 | -15.9% | 48.1% | 0.8% | -0.8% | 17.0% | -0.93 |
| Very High Risk | 10.0% | 157 | -32.1% | 48.4% | 1.5% | -1.6% | 37.9% | -0.85 |
| Benchmark · Buy & Hold | ||||||||
| All Periods | 100.0% | n/a | 12.4% | 54.4% | 0.7% | -0.7% | 17.3% | 0.72 |
Returns annualized; up-day share, average daily returns, volatility and Sharpe Ratio based on historical daily data since 1985. Past performance is no guide to future results.
Short-term outcomes have historically been mixed in regimes with similarly strong Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health. While the longer-term backdrop is constructive, the near-term pattern has shown a modestly higher frequency of muted or negative outcomes, with positive returns only slightly outnumbering negative ones over the next several days to a month. The short-term outlook is therefore neutral to slightly cautious, despite the underlying strength in broader market health.
The current combination of Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health places the regime in a stable state, with an 84.31% probability of remaining in Risk-On territory over the next five trading days (Very High Reward 84.3%).
The historical pattern in this regime has favored maintaining exposure rather than adding aggressively. Participation has generally been rewarded over time, but the near-term softness suggests a measured approach is warranted. The bias has leaned toward ongoing participation while avoiding significant increases in risk.
WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research on the S&P 500 every trading day. With a free Basic account you get full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard.
See This Week's Free Market →The current classification is shown at the top of this page and is updated after the close on every trading day. It is based on the S&P 500 Market Regime, the market phase derived from trend, market breadth and investor sentiment. Instead of price targets, the analysis shows how the S&P 500 has performed in comparable conditions since 1985. The freely available report is published with a delay; members receive it on the day of publication.
The answer is provided by the six-level scale at the top of this page. The upper three levels (Risk-On) indicate a constructive, broadly bullish environment, the lower three (Risk-Off) a defensive, broadly bearish environment. In addition, the long-term Market Health Score, a measure of market health from 0 to 100, shows whether the S&P 500 is trading in a bull or bear market on a structural level: readings of 50 and above indicate a bull market, readings below 50 a bear market.
Chapter 01 covers the latest session and which indicators changed. Structurally, a single down day rarely changes the underlying picture: the Market Regime is derived from trend, breadth and sentiment across more than 40 indicators, not from one session. The page shows whether the latest move has shifted the regime or left it intact.
Nobody can predict that with certainty. Instead, Chapter 04 shows the probability that the current market phase of the S&P 500 has persisted or shifted in comparable historical conditions since 1985. This provides a statistical expectation for the coming trading days, not price targets.
The long-term outlook is derived from the structural market status and historical statistics: Chapter 04 shows how often the S&P 500 was trading higher twelve months after comparable market phases and what the average development looked like. This is a probability-based assessment built on data since 1985, not a prediction.
Indications are provided by the sentiment indicators in Chapter 02, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money, meaning institutional and retail investors. Extreme euphoria has historically served as a warning signal, while extreme fear often acts as a contrarian indicator. The current state of investor sentiment is published on every trading day.
No. Classic forecasts provide price targets and chart levels. Instead, this page determines the current market phase of the S&P 500 on every trading day based on trend, market breadth and investor sentiment, and shows how comparable phases have developed since 1985. Probabilities instead of price targets: that is the data-driven form of an outlook.
In part. The indicators behind the Market Regime are technical: trend direction, moving averages, momentum and market breadth, combined with investor sentiment and smart money positioning. The difference lies in the interpretation. Instead of reading chart patterns, the signals are aggregated into a single score and compared with the historical record.
A Market Regime describes where a market stands as of the latest close on a six-level scale, from Very High Reward to Very High Risk. The upper three levels are considered Risk-On, the lower three Risk-Off. The classification describes the risk-reward environment the S&P 500 is trading in, not a price target.
Market Health is a measure of the market's condition: a composite score from 0 to 100, calculated separately for the short-, medium- and long-term horizon. It combines three dimensions: Trend shows whether the market is moving up, down or sideways. Market breadth (Trend Quality) measures how many stocks are actually participating in the move. Sentiment captures investor mood, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money. Readings above 50 indicate a constructive environment.
Risk-On comprises the three constructive Market Regimes Very High Reward, High Reward and Increasing Reward. Risk-Off comprises Increasing Risk, High Risk and Very High Risk. This distinction matters because the six Market Regimes have developed very differently since 1985. The table above shows, for each Market Regime since 1985, the annualized return, the share of positive days, the volatility and the Sharpe Ratio compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark.
After the close on every trading day. WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research only. Intraday or live data is not offered.
A free Basic account provides full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard. The freely available market changes every Saturday. No credit card is required.
No. WallStreetCourier publishes quantitative market research for informational purposes. It describes current market conditions but does not provide recommendations to act. The historical performance of a Market Regime is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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