S&P 500 · SPX · North America
The daily data-driven S&P 500 analysis: where the S&P 500 stands, how Trend, Breadth and Investor Sentiment define the current Market Regime, and how comparable setups have unfolded since 1985.
High Risk Regime Persists, Short-Term Remains Adverse
The S&P 500 posted a 0.2% gain on Friday, closing at 7650.5 after trading between 7610.5 and 7657.2. Despite the positive index return, market breadth was notably weak, with only 30.3% of constituents advancing and 69.5% declining. Volume participation mirrored this dynamic, as 28.7% of traded volume was in advancing stocks versus 70.4% in decliners. New 52-week highs remained limited at 0.4% of the index, while 4.3% of stocks registered new 52-week lows, highlighting narrow internal participation behind the headline move.
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A compact analysis of the S&P 500 indicators: Trend, Trend Quality (Breadth), and Sentiment across the short- and mid-term horizon, including Smart Money and Dumb Money positioning.
Short-term TREND indicators continue to reflect a negative structure, with the Trend Trader Index Lines showing both envelope lines in decline, underscoring ongoing weakness in the short-term price trend. The Modified MACD remains negative, confirming that short-term momentum is still under pressure. The Advance-/Decline 20 Days Momentum also signals a negative bias, as declining issues outpace advancing ones. The WSC Short-Term Trend Index points to a bearish environment, with a reduced percentage of stocks trading above their 26-week highs. While the market remains above its 50-day moving average and the EMA 50 Line is still rising, these positives are outweighed by the broader deterioration in short-term price action.
Short-term TREND QUALITY deteriorated further, as evidenced by the declining participation rates across key moving averages. The Percentage of Stocks Above 20-Day MA and 50-Day MA both indicate that the majority of constituents are trading below these benchmarks, reinforcing the negative tone. The Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily has turned bearish, with volume flows favoring the downside. Both the Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily and Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily confirm that declining stocks and volumes are outpacing advancing ones. The New Highs vs. New Lows Daily indicator also turned bearish, with more stocks hitting new yearly lows than highs, highlighting a broad-based loss of momentum.
Short-term SENTIMENT has shifted sharply negative, with realized volatility (10d) now trading above its 75th percentile, a notable deterioration from the previous observation. This uptick in volatility is a clear sign of increased risk aversion among market participants. Other sentiment gauges, such as the CBOE Total Put-/Call Ratio Daily and the 9-to-1 Up-/Down Days, remain neutral and did not materially influence the overall assessment. The Percentage of Stocks with RSI(14) above 70 and below 30 also remain neutral, indicating that neither extreme overbought nor oversold conditions are present at this time.
Mid-term TREND indicators remain constructive, with the WSC Mid-Term Price Trend and the market’s position above the 100-day moving average both confirming a bullish bias. The EMA 100 Line continues to rise, supporting the underlying uptrend. However, the WSC Trend Index signals caution, as the percentage of stocks trading above their 52-week highs remains subdued, suggesting that the strength of the advance is not broadly shared across the index. The Percentage of Stocks Above 150-Day MA remains supportive, with most constituents above this threshold, but the Percentage of Stocks Above 100-Day MA continues to indicate that a majority are below their 100-day moving average, tempering the overall positive picture.
Mid-term TREND QUALITY has weakened further, with several breadth and momentum indicators turning or remaining negative. The Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly and Advance-/Decline Index Weekly both highlight that declining stocks are outpacing advancing ones, reflecting a vulnerable tape. The Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly has also turned bearish, with declining volume now outpacing advancing volume, indicating weak demand. These developments suggest that, despite the positive TREND, the quality and sustainability of the advance are under pressure.
Mid-term SENTIMENT remains negative, with several indicators pointing to increased caution among investors. The Smart Money Flow Index and both the WSC Capitulation Index and WSC Capitulation Index FT continue to signal that smart money is not confirming the current market levels and is adopting a negative outlook. The AAII Bulls & Bears Survey shows a rise in bearish sentiment, indicating heightened fear among individual investors. On a more constructive note, realized volatility (20d) is trading below its 25th percentile, which is typically a positive sign, but this is not enough to offset the broader negative sentiment backdrop. Other sentiment measures, such as the Z-Score Put-/Call Ratio and the Hindenburg Omen, remain neutral and did not materially influence the overall assessment.
The S&P 500 is positioned within a Structural Bull Market, as defined by elevated Long-Term Market Health. Despite this supportive long-term backdrop, the current regime is classified as High Risk and Risk-Off, reflecting a pronounced deterioration in Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health. The near-term environment is characterized by defensive conditions, with the recent phase already extending well beyond typical Risk-Off durations.
Historically, since 1985, this regime has delivered an annualized return of -15.9% with a Sharpe of -0.93, against a buy-and-hold baseline of +12.4% per year. Volatility is broadly similar to buy-and-hold, while the average maximum drawdown stands at -0.53%. The up-day rate is 48.2% across a sample of 193 observations.
Historical return of the S&P 500 je Marktphase: die Entwicklung der sechs Market Regimes seit 1985 im Vergleich zur Buy-and-Hold-Benchmark. Die aktuelle Marktphase ist als Aktiv gekennzeichnet.
High Risk| Market Regime | Zeitanteil | Episoden | Rendite p.a. | Positive Tage | Ø positiver Tag | Ø negativer Tag | Volatilität | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On · 70.8% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Very High Reward | 62.9% | 393 | 26.9% | 56.3% | 0.6% | -0.5% | 11.5% | 2.33 |
| High Reward | 3.9% | 135 | 35.7% | 55.0% | 0.8% | -0.7% | 16.5% | 2.17 |
| Increasing Reward | 3.9% | 98 | 38.6% | 55.7% | 1.1% | -1.1% | 22.9% | 1.69 |
| Risk-Off · 29.2% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Increasing Risk | 14.9% | 390 | -16.9% | 49.5% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 15.9% | -1.06 |
| High Risk | 4.5% | 193 | -15.9% | 48.1% | 0.8% | -0.8% | 17.0% | -0.93 |
| Very High Risk | 9.9% | 157 | -32.1% | 48.4% | 1.5% | -1.6% | 37.9% | -0.85 |
| Benchmark · Buy & Hold | ||||||||
| All Periods | 100.0% | n/a | 12.4% | 54.4% | 0.7% | -0.7% | 17.3% | 0.72 |
Returns annualized; up-day share, average daily returns, volatility and Sharpe Ratio based on historical daily data since 1985. Past performance is no guide to future results.
Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health scores point to a cautious near-term outlook. Historically, comparable phases have produced a higher frequency of negative outcomes, with downside events more prevalent than positive ones over the next several sessions. The short-term pattern does not favor constructive positioning, and the risk of further drawdowns remains elevated.
The current combination of Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health places the regime in an extremely stable state, with a 97.6% probability of remaining in Risk-Off territory over the next five trading days (High Risk 63.1%, Very High Risk 29.8%, Increasing Risk 4.8%).
The historical pattern in this regime has favored reducing exposure and adopting a defensive stance. The bias has leaned toward limiting risk and avoiding aggressive allocation increases until a clear improvement in near-term conditions emerges.
WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research on the S&P 500 every trading day. With a free Basic account you get full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard.
See This Week's Free Market →The current classification is shown at the top of this page and is updated after the close on every trading day. It is based on the S&P 500 Market Regime, the market phase derived from trend, market breadth and investor sentiment. Instead of price targets, the analysis shows how the S&P 500 has performed in comparable conditions since 1985. The freely available report is published with a delay; members receive it on the day of publication.
The answer is provided by the six-level scale at the top of this page. The upper three levels (Risk-On) indicate a constructive, broadly bullish environment, the lower three (Risk-Off) a defensive, broadly bearish environment. In addition, the long-term Market Health Score, a measure of market health from 0 to 100, shows whether the S&P 500 is trading in a bull or bear market on a structural level: readings of 50 and above indicate a bull market, readings below 50 a bear market.
Chapter 01 covers the latest session and which indicators changed. Structurally, a single down day rarely changes the underlying picture: the Market Regime is derived from trend, breadth and sentiment across more than 40 indicators, not from one session. The page shows whether the latest move has shifted the regime or left it intact.
Nobody can predict that with certainty. Instead, Chapter 04 shows the probability that the current market phase of the S&P 500 has persisted or shifted in comparable historical conditions since 1985. This provides a statistical expectation for the coming trading days, not price targets.
The long-term outlook is derived from the structural market status and historical statistics: Chapter 04 shows how often the S&P 500 was trading higher twelve months after comparable market phases and what the average development looked like. This is a probability-based assessment built on data since 1985, not a prediction.
Indications are provided by the sentiment indicators in Chapter 02, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money, meaning institutional and retail investors. Extreme euphoria has historically served as a warning signal, while extreme fear often acts as a contrarian indicator. The current state of investor sentiment is published on every trading day.
No. Classic forecasts provide price targets and chart levels. Instead, this page determines the current market phase of the S&P 500 on every trading day based on trend, market breadth and investor sentiment, and shows how comparable phases have developed since 1985. Probabilities instead of price targets: that is the data-driven form of an outlook.
In part. The indicators behind the Market Regime are technical: trend direction, moving averages, momentum and market breadth, combined with investor sentiment and smart money positioning. The difference lies in the interpretation. Instead of reading chart patterns, the signals are aggregated into a single score and compared with the historical record.
A Market Regime describes where a market stands as of the latest close on a six-level scale, from Very High Reward to Very High Risk. The upper three levels are considered Risk-On, the lower three Risk-Off. The classification describes the risk-reward environment the S&P 500 is trading in, not a price target.
Market Health is a measure of the market's condition: a composite score from 0 to 100, calculated separately for the short-, medium- and long-term horizon. It combines three dimensions: Trend shows whether the market is moving up, down or sideways. Market breadth (Trend Quality) measures how many stocks are actually participating in the move. Sentiment captures investor mood, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money. Readings above 50 indicate a constructive environment.
Risk-On comprises the three constructive Market Regimes Very High Reward, High Reward and Increasing Reward. Risk-Off comprises Increasing Risk, High Risk and Very High Risk. This distinction matters because the six Market Regimes have developed very differently since 1985. The table above shows, for each Market Regime since 1985, the annualized return, the share of positive days, the volatility and the Sharpe Ratio compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark.
After the close on every trading day. WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research only. Intraday or live data is not offered.
A free Basic account provides full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard. The freely available market changes every Saturday. No credit card is required.
No. WallStreetCourier publishes quantitative market research for informational purposes. It describes current market conditions but does not provide recommendations to act. The historical performance of a Market Regime is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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